Yemen News Agency ( SABA)
Report: When will the world breathe freedom after Corona scenarios? ‏

Report: When will the world breathe freedom after Corona scenarios? ‏


SANAA, June 10 (Saba) - A new era of lifting self-isolation started in a number of European countries and other countries around the world, after those countries began last March their procedures to lift self-quarantine.

France, along with other European countries, began last Tuesday, June 2,  to implement the second stage of lifting quarantine restrictions plan imposed on a population more than two months within the framework of facing the spread of the virus.

The new stage includes lifting restrictions on movement and domestic travel and opening restaurants, theaters, museums and zoos.

Most European countries have previously chosen to return a portion of students to schools in a partial quarantine measure.

Many observers and experts wonder about the reasons that pushed these countries to lift the house quarantine. Has the world really started breathing a sigh of relief and freedom? Does this mean the end of the Corona virus threat around the world? Or are the measures to lift the quarantine political and aim to save the economy?

The global economic losses due to the outbreak of the novel Corona pandemic are estimated at about 50 billion dollars, while other experts estimate that the world economy is exposed to the risk of financial loss more than two trillion dollars.

The Corona pandemic impact also reflected on economic growth and global demand for oil, while its impact extended to Asian and American markets alike. The pandemic restricted travel and trade among countries and increased spending on the precautionary process to limit its spread.

Policy makers at the US central bank said the crisis had caused "enormous human and economic difficulties in the United States and around the world."

The economic blow to the US economy is expected to be more painful between April and June. But economists say the first-quarter estimate is likely to see a slight decline after the government received more data.

Since the start of the quarantine procedures in most European countries last March, many young people in Europe and France suffer from an example of this, “severe delirium bouts” that reach some people to the extent that the disease is embodied in them, according to France 24, some of them say “I am a Covid-19.” Or it is “the virus itself” or claims that “I have found a cure against the Corona virus” or is thought to be “responsible for everything that happens.

Scientists have tried to put scenarios of how will the Coronavirus end and its danger disappears, according to a report published by the Washington Post.

Scientists hope to control the emerging corona virus, as it did with SARS.

The first scenario:

The first scenario, which scientists expect, and which will be an ideal result, is that the public health services will control the virus, given that the novel Corona virus similar to the spread of the SARS virus in Asia in 2002 when the death rate reached about 10 percent of the infected, and public health institutions have managed to finding ways and procedures to deal with it and contain it.

SARS had more severe symptoms than the novel corona virus, as the first disease has symptoms, infected were rushed to hospital early stages of the disease.

Stuart Weston, a post-doctoral researcher at University of Maryland, School of Medicine working on corona viruses of Maryland virologist, said tracking and finding infected with the virus is more difficult especially as his symptoms are mildly infected, which makes him unaware that he / she is already infected.

Weston, who is among a group of researchers who obtained a sample of the novel corona virus to study, added tracking the infected cases is the most difficult task in the early stages of the disease.

The second scenario  

The second scenario is that the virus conquers or will conquer the least developed countries  (LDCs) , and matters get worse, but they improve after that, and this is similar to what happened with the outbreak of the Ebola virus during 2014-2016, where the epidemic spread in West Africa and caused more than 11 thousand deaths and infected about 28 thousand people, but it Stop spreading at some point.

The spread of the Ebola virus was accompanied by a shortage of medical supplies and personnel in African countries, but the frequency of its spread was less contagious than the novel corona that can be transmitted through the spray of coughing and sneezing for the infected person, which may be present on various surfaces.

The World Health Organization (WHO)  is urging countries to prepare for the worst and raise the risk assessment to the highest level. The WHO says "this is a realistic test for every government on the planet", and that the authorities' failure to discover cases of infection and their lack of preparedness is not an excuse not to search for a cure for the disease.

The third scenario

The third scenario, the novel Corona virus is expected to spread and become a reality we live with, which is similar to what happened when the swine flu virus (H1N1) broke out, as it spread between about 21 percent of the world's population, and the WHO declared the H1N1 influenza a pandemic.

But it has now become one of the types of seasonal viruses, which appear every year and disappear on its own all over the world, although the mortality rate of this virus is lower than SARS, but it is more deadly because of its spread.

Figures indicate the swine flu virus killed 1269 people during 2009-2010 season, infected more than 60 million people and sending more than 274,000 people to hospitals.

Epidemiologists fear the Spanish flu that swept the world in 1918 was the closest to the novel Corona, in which the death rate was 2.5 percent of infections, as it was the deadliest in human history and killed about 50 million people around the world.

The International Monetary Fund considers - in a recent report on the semi-annual financial situation, the effects of the Corona pandemic may require more economic stimulus measures once the crisis recedes, in particular, it is now expected that government revenues will be 2.5% less than the global GDP, compared to last October's estimates.

The IMF warned that measures to curb the spread of the virus increased the unemployment rate at 16 million of the labor force, while companies incurred trillions of dollars from the market value of global stock markets and may lead to the worst economic collapse since the great depression in the thirties of the last century.

The Fund pointed out the financial measures pledged by the leaders of the G20 are higher than the stimulus programs that the governments of the major countries spent during the global financial crisis that started in 2008.

The public sector support programs with liquidity, including loans and guarantees for companies in Germany, France, Italy, Britain and Japan, are equivalent to more than 10% of its gross domestic product.

The Corona pandemic continues to spread in 213 countries, territories and regions around the world, and has caused the death of more than 397 thousand people in the world since its appearance in December last year.

According to the "World Meter" website,  6,826,544 cases of the Covid-19 were infected around the world, 397422 cases have died, 3,312,914 people have been recovered.

The United States continues recording the highest death toll in the world, with a death toll of 108,708 out of 188,3656 infected, while 485,000 and at least two people have recovered.

Britain came after the United States among the most affected countries, with 40,261 deaths out of 283,311 infected, followed by Brazil with 34021 deaths and 641941 infected, then Italy with 33,774 deaths and 234531 injuries, France 29,111 deaths and 190052 infected.



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