Sana'a – Saba:
The fuse of the Kashmir conflict between India and Pakistan has reignited, bringing it back to the forefront after a 26-year truce and raising fears of a nuclear war between the two neighboring countries.
On April 23, 2025, a new diplomatic crisis erupted between the two nations following a terrorist attack in the Paisaran Valley of Kashmir, which killed 25 tourists and one local citizen while injuring more than 20 others.
India accused Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism and began expelling diplomats, suspending visas, closing borders, and withdrawing from the Indus Water Treaty. Pakistan, in turn, denied these accusations and retaliated with diplomatic expulsions, visa suspensions, trade restrictions, and the closure of airspace and border crossings.
Additionally, India’s Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) strongly urged its citizens to avoid travel to Pakistan and called on those currently in the country to return at the earliest opportunity.
This escalation was enough to prompt the United Nations to urgently call on India and Pakistan to exercise "maximum restraint" just two days after tensions between the two countries flared up.
Tensions further escalated when a high-ranking Pakistani official claimed last Wednesday morning that he had "reliable intelligence" indicating New Delhi would launch a military strike against Islamabad within the next two days.
Last week, both New Delhi and Islamabad showcased their military strength. Pakistan shot down an Indian drone allegedly used for "spying" in the disputed Kashmir region, according to Pakistani security sources cited by CNN.
Two days prior, the Indian Navy announced it had conducted test missile strikes to "reconfirm the readiness of platforms, systems, and crews to carry out precise long-range attacks and demonstrate this capability."
Tensions also flared along the Line of Control, with exchanges of gunfire reported along the disputed border for five consecutive nights.
These developments triggered international reactions, most notably U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s call for India and Pakistan to de-escalate and reduce tensions.
China, which also claims control over part of Kashmir and has grown closer to Pakistan in recent years, urged restraint.
Political analysts "have not ruled out the possibility of a nuclear war erupting from this conflict unless the international community intervenes to regulate the pace of this confrontation and restore calm—especially since the India-Pakistan dispute has historical roots dating back to the 1940s."
"The last conflict between India and Pakistan occurred in 1999, while the dispute over Kashmir—a regional conflict stemming from the partition of India in 1947 as part of the aftermath of World War II—began between the two nations."
The India-Pakistan conflict over Kashmir has flared up three times, including the Indo-Pakistani Wars of 1947 and 1965 and the Kargil War in 1999. The two countries have also frequently clashed over control of the Siachen Glacier.
In 1998, both nations conducted nuclear tests, and today they remain in a state of latent armed conflict in Muslim-majority Kashmir, whose Hindu leader acceded to India—which provided military support against a Pakistan-backed insurgency.
This led to the outbreak of the First Indo-Pakistani War and the division of the region between the two countries just months after independence.
India claims full sovereignty over Jammu , Kashmir and has controlled around 43% of the region since 2010, including Jammu, the Kashmir Valley, Ladakh, and the Siachen Glacier.
Pakistan administers approximately 37% of Jammu and Kashmir, known as Azad Kashmir ("Free Kashmir") and Gilgit-Baltistan, though India claims these territories as its own.
Observers conclude that "after seven decades of conflict between India and Pakistan, Kashmir remains a constant flashpoint between the two nations—one that cannot be contained unless the issue of Kashmir’s fate is resolved, keeping both countries just one trigger pull away from plunging the world into a nuclear catastrophe."
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